Saudi Arabia’s income from VAT will contribute around 43 percent of non-oil revenue in 2021, up from 25 percent last year and 14 percent in 2019, Jadwa Investment estimated.
“Value added tax (VAT) revenue remains a key component of non-oil revenue,” the investment bank said in a note today on Saudi 2022 pre-budget statement.
Jadwa added that they expect the “other revenues” component will be an important contributor to non-oil revenue in the medium term, fuelled by state asset sales and public private partnerships (PPP).
The government hopes to raise SR206 billion from this route over the next five years.
However, the National Centre for Privatization and PPP (NCP) has recently suspended the privatization of Ras Al Khair desalination and power plant due to the adverse effects of the pandemic.
As a result, Jadwa expects that this will impact the 2021 asset sales and PPPs target of SR26 billion.
The government did not change the expenditures forecast of 2022 and 2023 in its pre-budget statement — a move welcomed as fiscally prudent by Jadwa.
Expenditure plans are predicted to continue focusing on the development of mega-projects and the implementation of various programmes relating to the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative, particularly around housing and education.
“The Ministry of Finance has taken a conservative approach in budgeting oil and non-oil revenue” a statement by the investment bank read.
Jadwa speculated that the revenue expected from 2022 onwards did not include the continued payment of Aramco’s special dividend.
If those payments are confirmed for 2022 and oil prices have an average of at least $65 a barrel, a nominal surplus could emerge next year, according to Jadwa.
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