RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s overall gross domestic product growth is expected to hit 8.7 percent in 2022, according to a report by Jadwa Investment, up from an earlier forecast of 7.7 percent.
In its Macroeconomic Update report, the firm noted that the Kingdom’s oil GDP is projected to witness a year-on-year growth of 16.6 percent, while the non-oil market will rise by 4.3 percent, driven by higher private sector growth of 4.4 percent.
“Since the start of the year, Jadwa’s non-oil private sector composite index has been trending upwards. More specifically, we see higher growth in three sectors: non-oil manufacturing, wholesale & retail trade, restaurants & hotels, and transport, storage and communication,” Jadwa Investment’s report noted.
The report further said the Saudi Arabia government’s total revenue in 2022 is projected at SR1,338 billion ($355.79 million), while the fiscal surplus is expected to total SR335 billion — 8.7 percent of GDP.
“Government revenues were up by 43 percent in H1 2022 over H1 2021 levels, lifted by a combination of yearly rise in Saudi refined products and crude oil export volumes in H1, higher Brent oil prices, and higher oil production,” according to the document.
Jadwa Investment added that the Brent oil forecast for 2022 is at $102 per barrel, despite a surge in crude prices.
According to the report, the Kingdom’s average oil output will witness a slight rise from 10.5 million barrels per day to 10.6 mbpd in 2022.
Earlier, American credit rating agency S&P predicted that Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to grow at the highest rate in 10 years , to 7.5 percent in 2022.
S&P report noted that the surplus in the Kingdom’s state budget is expected to be about 6.3 percent in 2022.
In June, credit rating agency Moody’s Investors predicted that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow at an average rate of five percent in the period 2021-2023.